The roadmap for achieving a 51% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 is outlined and developed in successive annual climate action plans which set out detailed strategies for delivery across multiple sectors. Our ambitious 2030 target is underpinned by legally binding carbon budgets and sectoral emissions ceilings established under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021.
The Climate Action Plan 2024 outlines a range of measures across key sectors to drive emissions reductions. In the electricity sector, we aim to increase renewable energy generation to 80% of electricity demand by 2030, including targeting 9 GW of onshore wind, at least 5 GW of offshore wind and 8 GW of solar capacity. In the transport sector, we are aiming for a 20% reduction in total vehicle kilometres travelled and for 845,000 electric vehicles to be on the road by 2030. In agriculture, key measures include reducing chemical nitrogen use, improving animal breeding for lower methane emissions and diversifying land use.
However, current projections indicate a significant challenge requiring an acceleration in implementation. The Environmental Protection Agency's with existing measures, WEM, scenario projects that 2030 emissions will only be 11% lower than 2018 levels. Under the with additional measures, WAM, scenario, which incorporates most policies and measures in the Climate Action Plan 2023, emissions are projected to be, as the Deputy said, 29% lower in 2030 than in 2018. The EPA’s projection also indicates that if all the unmodelled policies and measures in the climate action plan and yet unallocated emissions savings were accounted for, the projected emissions reduction in 2030 would be 42%. To accelerate progress to our target, the climate action plan 2024 sets out a range of important actions, including the acceleration of the deployment of renewable energy, enhancing agricultural measures based on the latest Teagasc marginal abatement cost curve, and implementing more aggressive transport modal shift strategies. The plan also introduces a strengthened governance framework including improved monitoring and reporting systems to track progress more effectively and enable timely interventions where needed.
Additional information not given on the floor of the House
A key component of the strategy to meet the 2030 target is addressing the 26 MtCO2eq of unallocated emissions savings in the second carbon budget period from 2026 to 2030. The Climate Action Plan 2024 outlines an approach to allocate these savings, focusing on five key pathways: economy-wide energy efficiency and demand management; accelerating the future energy system; implementing sustainable food and agriculture practices; deploying carbon capture and storage technologies; and supporting carbon removals.
The land use, land use change and forestry, LULUCF, sector plays a crucial role in Ireland's climate strategy, but it presents unique challenges. Due to significant fluctuations in the baseline emissions and ongoing inventory refinements, the Climate Action Plan 2024 proposes a new approach for this sector. This includes setting ambitious activity targets, such as increasing afforestation rates to 8,000 ha per year by 2030 and aligning with EU LULUCF regulations. This approach aims to provide a more stable framework for emissions reduction in this complex sector.
To bridge the remaining gap to the 51% target, the climate action plan seeks to harness the potential of innovation and emerging technologies. This includes exploring green hydrogen, advancing bioenergy solutions and investigating carbon removal technologies. The plan also stresses the importance of behavioural change and public engagement, recognising that achieving the target will require efforts from all sectors of society.
The Climate Action Plan 2024 acknowledges that meeting the 51% reduction target by 2030 is a significant challenge which will require unprecedented levels of action and investment. It calls for a whole- of-government approach, enhanced co-ordination between national, regional, and local levels and increased public private partnerships. The plan recognises the need for flexibility and adaptability, recognising that strategies may need to be adjusted as new technologies emerge and as the impacts of current measures become clearer.